Texas Mortgage Rates This Week: What's Moving and Why

Texas Mortgage Rates This Week: What’s Moving and Why

Mortgage rates in Texas shifted this week as the Fed signaled continued vigilance on inflation and the 10-year Treasury yield climbed 15 basis points. Here’s what Texas borrowers need to know right now—and when to lock.

Current Texas Rate Snapshot (Week of January 10, 2026)

Conventional (740+ credit, 20% down):

• 30-year fixed: 6.125%–6.375% (APR 6.25%–6.50%)
• 15-year fixed: 5.50%–5.75% (APR 5.65%–5.90%)

FHA (3.5% down, 680+ credit):

• 30-year fixed: 6.25%–6.625% (APR 6.45%–6.85%)

VA (0% down, 720+ credit):

• 30-year fixed: 5.875%–6.25% (APR 6.00%–6.40%)

Jumbo ($766,550+, 740+ credit, 20% down):

• 30-year fixed: 6.50%–7.00% (APR 6.65%–7.20%)

Rates vary by lender, credit tier, and loan-to-value. APR includes typical Texas lender fees.

What Moved Rates This Week

1. 10-Year Treasury Yield Climbed

The 10-year Treasury yield rose from 4.25% to 4.40% this week after stronger-than-expected jobs data. Mortgage rates track the 10-year closely—when it rises, mortgage rates follow within 24–48 hours.

Why this matters: If you were quoted 6.00% conventional on Monday, the same lender likely quoted 6.25% by Friday. Waiting cost borrowers 0.25% (roughly $50/month on a $300K loan).

2. Fed Commentary Stayed Hawkish

The Fed reiterated its commitment to 2% inflation, signaling no rate cuts in Q1 2026. This keeps upward pressure on long-term rates, including mortgages.

Translation: Don’t expect dramatic rate drops in the next 30–60 days. If you’re closing soon, lock now to avoid further increases.

3. Texas Housing Demand Stayed Strong

Houston, Dallas, and Austin metros saw inventory remain tight, keeping local lender pricing competitive. San Antonio saw slight softening, which some lenders reflected in 0.125% lower pricing.

Takeaway: Local market conditions matter. Shop multiple Texas lenders to see regional pricing differences.

Should You Lock or Float This Week?

Lock if:

• You’re closing in 30–45 days (rates could climb another 0.125%–0.25%)
• You have a strong rate quote today (6.25% or below for conventional)
• The 10-year Treasury is trending upward (it is right now)
• You want certainty and peace of mind

Float if:

• You’re closing in 60+ days and have float-down options
• You’re betting on a Fed policy shift (risky in current environment)
• Your lender offers a rate cap or renegotiation clause
• You’re comfortable with volatility risk

Our take: Markets are showing upward pressure. Unless you have a strong reason to float (like a Fed meeting coming with expected dovish pivot), locking now protects you from further increases.

How Credit Tiers Affect Your Texas Rate

The rates above assume strong credit (720–740+). Here’s how credit tiers shift pricing in Texas:

• 780+ credit: Base pricing (rates shown above)
• 760–779: Add 0.125%–0.25%
• 740–759: Add 0.25%–0.375%
• 720–739: Add 0.375%–0.50%
• 700–719: Add 0.50%–0.75%
• 680–699: Add 0.75%–1.00%
• 660–679: Add 1.00%–1.50%
• 640–659: Add 1.50%–2.50% (if approved)

Example: If you have a 690 credit score, add 0.75% to conventional pricing. Your rate would be 6.875%–7.125% instead of 6.125%–6.375%.

Action step: Check your credit score and see if you’re close to the next tier (e.g., 718 → 721). A small improvement can save thousands.

APR vs. Rate: Why Texas Borrowers Get Confused

Most ads show the rate (e.g., “6.00% conventional”). But the APR (Annual Percentage Rate) includes:

• Lender origination fees
• Discount points
• Underwriting and processing fees
• Prepaid interest and escrows

Example:

• Lender A: 6.00% rate, $3,500 fees → APR 6.25%
• Lender B: 6.125% rate, $1,200 fees → APR 6.20%

Lender B’s APR is lower despite the higher rate. That’s the real cost.

Always ask: “What’s the APR, and what fees are included?”

Texas Rate Predictions: Next 30 Days

Based on current Fed policy, Treasury trends, and inflation data:

Likely scenario (60% probability): Rates hold steady or rise 0.125%–0.25%. The Fed is not cutting soon, and the 10-year Treasury is trending up.

Best-case scenario (25% probability): Rates drop 0.125% if inflation data surprises lower or geopolitical events push investors into bonds.

Worst-case scenario (15% probability): Rates climb 0.50%+ if inflation re-accelerates or the Fed signals more tightening.

Our recommendation: If you’re comfortable with today’s rate, lock. The risk-reward favors locking over floating right now.

How to Track Texas Rates Daily

Don’t rely on weekly snapshots. Rates change daily. Here’s how to stay informed:

1. Check the 10-year Treasury yield daily (Google “10-year Treasury yield” or visit FRED Economic Data)
2. Watch Fed announcements (next FOMC meeting: January 28–29, 2026)
3. Compare APR from 3+ Texas lenders (use Browse Lenders to shop without multiple hard inquiries)
4. Set rate alerts (some lenders and rate-tracking sites send daily updates)

Lock Timing Playbook for Texas Borrowers

If you’re buying:

• 30–45 days to close: Lock now. Markets favor locking.
• 60+ days to close: Float with a rate cap or float-down option. Monitor 10-year Treasury and lock if it breaks 4.50%.

If you’re refinancing:

• Break-even < 18 months: Lock if current rates save you money vs. your existing rate.
• Break-even > 24 months: Wait and see if rates drop 0.25%–0.50% in Q2 2026.

Real Texas Borrower Scenarios

Scenario 1: Houston First-Time Buyer

Profile: 720 credit, 5% down, $325K purchase Conventional rate quoted Monday: 6.25% Same lender Friday: 6.50% Action: Should have locked Monday. Waiting cost $55/month.

Scenario 2: Dallas Refinancer

Profile: 760 credit, 25% equity, $400K loan Current rate: 7.25% (2022 lock) Refi rate today: 6.125% Savings: $365/month Action: Lock immediately. Break-even is 8 months; this is a no-brainer.

Scenario 3: Austin Jumbo Buyer

Profile: 780 credit, 25% down, $950K purchase Jumbo rate: 6.75% Action: Shop 3+ jumbo lenders. Spreads are wide (6.50%–7.25%). Lock with best APR.

The Bottom Line

Texas mortgage rates are holding in the 6.00%–6.75% range for conventional and FHA, with VA slightly lower and jumbo higher. Markets show upward pressure, not downward.

Key actions this week:

1. Check your credit tier—improving 20–40 points can save $50+/month
2. Compare APR, not just rate—lender fees vary wildly
3. Lock if you’re closing soon—risk-reward favors locking over floating
4. Monitor the 10-year Treasury—it’s your rate compass

Next steps: Compare Texas lenders on Browse Lenders and get APR quotes for your profile. Lock when markets align with your timeline.